There's a tool that claims to cut through this noise by showing you what students in your exact situation actually chose. It's called Parchment's Cross-Admit Comparison. It’s interesting, but before you let it influence your decision, don’t forget to go through its methodology/ limitations.

Parchment is a credential and transcript service used by thousands of high schools and universities. As a side project, they've built a college comparison tool based on data from students who report their admissions outcomes.

The tool answers a simple question:

When students are admitted to both School A and School B, which one do they actually attend?

🔗 https://www.parchment.com/c/college/tools/college-cross-admit-comparison.php

The concept is called "revealed preference." Instead of asking students which school they think is better, it looks at which school they chose when they had both options in hand.

When you compare two schools, the tool shows you:

For example, comparing Harvard and Yale might show that 63% of students admitted to both chose Harvard. The coloured result indicates this difference is statistically significant at a 95% confidence level.

This tool is interesting. It is also deeply flawed. Treat it as a curiosity, not a guide.

1. It only compares students admitted to both schools

This seems obvious, but the implications are significant.

The tool can compare Harvard vs. University of Minnesota, for instance. But the vast majority of Harvard applicants aren't applying to University of Minnesota, and vice versa. The tiny sliver of students who applied to and were admitted to both is not representative of either school's applicant pool.

This leads to bizarre comparisons. When you see Harvard vs. a regional state school, you're looking at a very unusual subset of students, not a meaningful head-to-head. You need enough cross-admits for the comparison to mean anything at all.

2. Grey numbers = low confidence

If the results are displayed in colour, the difference is statistically significant. If both sides are grey and it's not 50/50, the sample size is too small or the margin too narrow for Parchment to be confident.

In those cases, the numbers are noise. A grey 54-46 split could easily be 50-50, or even reversed, with a few more data points. Don't take grey results seriously.

3. Self-reporting bias is real (and probably large)

Parchment's data comes from students voluntarily reporting their outcomes. This creates a serious response bias problem.

Think about it: a student who chose Harvard over a less famous school might not feel the need to report anything. They got into Harvard. Everyone already assumes Harvard is the "better" choice. There's nothing to prove.

But a student who chose a smaller liberal arts college, or a state school, or any "surprising" option over a big name might be more motivated to log their decision. Perhaps to validate their choice. Perhaps to show that the lesser-known school can compete.

This asymmetry likely skews the data. We don't know how much. But the students who report are not a random sample of the students who decided.

4. It doesn't account for why students chose

A student might choose Cornell over Columbia because Cornell has the only Ivy League hotel school. Or because they received a full scholarship. Or because their family lives in Ithaca.

None of that reflects which school is "better" in any general sense.

The tool shows what students chose. It doesn't show why. And the why is usually everything.

5. Financial aid is invisible

A student who receives a full ride to one school and loans-only at another isn't making a pure preference decision. The tool can't separate "I preferred School A" from "School B was financially impossible."

For international students especially, where need-based aid is scarce and costs vary wildly by school, this is a massive blind spot.

6. Early Decision distorts the pool

Students who apply Early Decision commit to a school before receiving other offers. They never enter the cross-admit comparison because they never had both options simultaneously.

Schools with large ED programmes may appear to "win" more cross-admits simply because their most committed applicants were never in the Regular Decision pool to begin with.

7. Geography and programme strength matter more than "preference"

A California student admitted to both UCLA and University of Michigan might choose UCLA to stay close to home. That's not a statement about quality. It's a statement about where their family lives.

Similarly, a student interested in hotel management will choose Cornell. A student interested in film will choose USC or NYU. These are programme-specific decisions, not school-wide rankings.

Honestly? Probably not. Actually definitively not.

I don't subscribe to the idea that "what other people picked" is a particularly good input to a college decision. Other people aren't you. They have different priorities, different circumstances, different goals.

If 70% of cross-admits chose School A, that means 30% chose School B. Those 30% had their reasons. Maybe those reasons apply to you too.

The aggregate behaviour of strangers who happen to have been admitted to the same two schools tells you very little about:

These are the questions that matter. Parchment can't answer any of them. Nonetheless, no harm getting some directional sense.

If you're genuinely torn between two schools, here's what actually helps:

Visit (or revisit) if you can. Admitted student days exist for a reason. The vibe of a campus is hard to capture in brochures. You can also do virtual tours (please click here for a list of virtual campus tours from a previous edition of the newsletter).

Talk to current students/alumni. Not admissions ambassadors. Real students. Recent alums. Ask them what they wish they'd known before enrolling.

Research your specific department. The overall ranking of a university matters far less than the strength of the programme you'll actually be in.

Trust your gut. You've done the research. You've visited. You've talked to people. At some point, you have to make the call. The "right" choice is the one that feels right, the one you are happy to commit to fully.

Parchment Cross-Admit Comparison: https://www.parchment.com/c/college/tools/college-cross-admit-comparison.php

Please feel free to reach out to me at [email protected] with any questions.